Feb2

accuracy, schmaccuracy.

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it’s ground hog day once again, and poor phil. the famous groundhog

will get pulled out of a deep winter’s sleep.

many will gather to see what phil will predict.

will spring be just around the corner, or delayed for another few weeks?

how accurate are his predications, really?

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At Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, weather-predicting groundhog Phil may see his shadow, which means he’ll call for six more weeks of winter-like conditions. Don’t get too bummed, though—Phil’s recent track record isn’t that great on the national level.

The tradition started in 1887, and since then, the groundhog chosen to represent Phil has seen his shadow 101 times. 

Phil has predicted 100% correctly in only five of the 26 years the National Climatic Data Center analyzed. Other than once, he only nailed the years in which he forecasted an early spring. Considering the contiguous United States just experienced its 2oth+ consecutive year with an above-average annual temperature, Phil may be wise to play the numbers and always predict an early spring.

Then again, perhaps we expect too much from a marmot with no access to nationwide climate data.

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“well, the way we perceive accuracy and what accuracy is statistically

are really two different things.”

-nate silver

 

 

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source credit: nick greene, mental floss

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73 responses »

  1. I really find this very interesting that people in USA count days till seasons change. Over here we know it’s spring when we don’t feel like wearing extra layers and that it’s summer when fans and air conditioning is switched on.

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  10. Whether Phil can predict, which direction he’s facing, where he lives, and other factors influence Phil’s willingness or ability to communicate to humankind anything he knows. I’m more interested in all those people whose job it is to watch a groundhog emerging from his hole in the ground. Watch your step.

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  18. Even with all kinds of equipment at their disposal, meteorologists get the forecast wrong a lot of the time! I keep saying that weather forecasters are one of the few careers where you can get it wrong as much as (even more than) you get it right without fear of being fired.

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  21. I’m with Merril on this one ;-) We have our own groundhog, Wiarton Willie. I just googled and got this: He is claimed locally to be accurate in his prognostications around 90% of the time; scientists have estimated Willie’s accuracy at 25%.

    Happy Groundhog Day, Beth, no matter what they say, spring will come :)

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